Wind farm business – Exit & strategic options model

Caplitica built a comprehensive project finance model for a large-scale wind farm, evaluating commercial options and securing over $300m in debt financing. The model continues to be used for ongoing monitoring and financial reporting.

I.

Context

A renewable energy company developing a large-scale wind farm required a robust model to assess commercial options, optimise financing structures, and provide long-term financial projections. The client needed a tool that could support lender negotiations, investor presentations, and strategic decision-making, while stress-testing various revenue structures such as power purchase agreements (PPAs) and merchant pricing. The model needed to address regulatory risks, operational efficiencies, and fluctuating energy price forecasts. Existing tools were overly simplistic and lacked the flexibility to accommodate multiple financing scenarios.

II.

What we delivered

  • Built a project finance model integrating debt financing, equity contributions, and operational projections for the entire project lifecycle.
  • Created scenario analysis features to test sensitivity to various energy price forecasts, capacity factors, and operational efficiencies.
  • Developed a PPA analysis module to compare fixed-price contracts, merchant pricing, and hybrid structures.
  • Produced board-ready outputs and lender materials to support project financing negotiations and investor presentations.
  • Structured a 10-year cash flow projection to provide clarity on revenue potential, maintenance costs, and decommissioning expenses.
  • Built a dynamic dashboard to monitor financial performance and update forecasts as market conditions evolved.
III.

Outcome / impact

Successfully secured over $300m in debt financing by providing detailed financial projections, stress-tested scenarios, and polished presentation materials. The model became a cornerstone tool for ongoing project monitoring and financial reporting, enabling the client to adapt to changing market conditions and refine revenue strategies.

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